Factors behind NWP quality: - dependencies, error sources and forecast uncertainties

Date: 11.02.2016

Time: 11:00 - 12:00

Place: Nordlys, DMI

Contact: Cathrine Fox Maule

Is HARMONIE system a quantum leap over that of HIRLAM? if so, why aren't HARMONIE forecasts always better than HIRLAM? Why more observation data do not always bring better weather forecast? What are the main added values of our own NWP forecast compared to ECMWF and other weather services? How do DMI forecast compared to others: why yr.no sometimes look better/more popular than dmi.dk?

DMI is a weather service responsible for issuing forecast and warning for the Danish territories. It is crucial for us to follow closely performance and evolution of our NWP forecast quality, especially, to diagnose and understand deficiencies and dependencies in order to improve.  In this 45-min lecture, I certainly will not be able to address fully the above sort of questions but I'll try to share my views from a modelers perspective. I look forward for some inspiring discussions.